Arranged and forced marriages in Kyrgyzstan: Persistence or change

In this study we analyze transitions to first marriage in Kyrgyzstan – one of the post-Soviet states of Central Asia. We use retrospective survey data collected in 2011/12 that contain full partnership histories of a representative sample of men and women in that country. We estimate hazard regression models to examine competing risks of arranged and non-arranged marriage among Kyrgyz and Uzbeks Kyrgyzstan‟s two largest ethnic groups. For Kyrgyz we also analyze risks of marriage resulting from forced bride kidnapping. Our results indicate that nonsymmetrical gender roles manifest themselves in positive effects of employment on marriage for men and negative effects for women. They also show that the effects of educational attainment of bride and groom vary by marriage type. With respect to marriage dynamics our results demonstrate that contrary to a popular notion of a post-Soviet revival of traditional marriage practices, the risks of marriage resulting from bride kidnapping have declined since the collapse of the USSR. Finally, we observe that during the most recent period covered by our data marriage risks declined across all marriage types. Introduction The recent history of Central Asia has been marked by socialist socioeconomic modernization and cultural russification during the Soviet times, and spells of economic and political instability, along with a revival of pre-Soviet traditions and ethno-centered sentiments after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. These processes have generated a unique mix of social and cultural forces that, in turn, have shaped family patterns. The breakup of the Soviet Union also brought to the region greater openness to both the Western and Islamic cultural influences which are likely to contribute to the diversity of norms, values, and attitudes regarding family formation. The specific focus of our research is on arranged marriages. We study transition to first marriage among Kyrgyz and Uzbeks – ethnic groups that